Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. This problem vexed me for months, but about a year ago I thought of a way to crack it. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Wide receivers make the bulk of their high-value receptions on passes at intermediate depths (between 5 and 15 . PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players. Best and worst receiver seasons on deep passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. For example, we can see that A.J. Thats somewhat shocking and perhaps it explains why the number of Landrys short targets dropped by nearly half after he moved to the analytics-friendly Cleveland Browns. They won't know it's a hitch until it's a hitch -- if the route is run well. The numbers that propelled Thomas to the top here were his yards, of course, but also his efficiency. Thats where yards per route run comes into play. We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. An interesting note is how close a call it was between Thomas and Ridley for the top spot in the rankings, which should excite Falcons fans about the potential of the former Alabama star. With so many yards and an average YAC score, those yards must have been from deep or contested low-probability routes: How about Open Score? Thomas was pressed 49% of the time on crossing routes, yet he posted a catch rate that was 24.9% above expectation on 29 targets. Do you have a sports website? 43), 11.5 (No. Austin missed five games: weeks 4 and 5 against Denver and Washington, and then weeks 8 through ten against the Lions, Vikings, and Saints. Gaining insight into how they either excel or underperform could tell us which are ready to break out, if they were just targeted more often, and which receivers are making their quarterback look better than they actually are. The, The most valuable routes by expected points added per target were the, It's worth noting four of the five most valuable routes by EPA per target are. In other words, the regression thinks Johnsons much more likely to maintain his elite TPRR than Stills is to maintain his elite Y/T. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. Join our linker program. We think these weights make logical sense, in that a receiver has to get open to have the chance to make a catch. However, he averaged only 6.3 yards target, leaving Johnson with a poor 1.56 yards per route run average. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. His YAC on hitches was second-best in the NFL, trailing only Keenan Allen. He is unlikely to see the field in 2014, and will almost certainly go down as a colossal bust. The Method. The problem is we would be measuring receiver success accounting for the dynamic context of what is happening on the field. But we can gain some precision by instead using Year N Yards per Target and Year N Targets per Route Run to predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run: Yr N+1 YPRR = 0.062 + 5.09 * Yr_N_TPRR + 0.0656 * Yr_N_Y/T (R^2 = 0.23). HaSS layers height into the traditional speed score equation by also dividing the player's height by the average wide receiver height: 73.0 inches (6'1") or average tight end height: 76.4 . Which QB makes the list? Last season there were 32 wide receivers to run at least 300 routes and draw a target on at least 20 percent of their routes. With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, who are the can't-miss prospects in this talent crop? Below are the 15 unique route types assigned to all route runners, based on their location when the ball is snapped. Which statistics and measurables are the most sticky? REC. For every route run, Open Score assesses the likelihood a receiver would be able to complete a catch, conditional on if he were targeted. What Im curious about is the stickiness of each metric. Justin Blackmon was in the same boat as Jones in that he only played in four games. Sources: NFL Next Gen Stats, ESPN Stats & Information Group. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Part of this effect might be due to scheme, but unfortunately scheme and signal-caller overlap too much to parse those effects apart. Danielr28 2 yr. ago. Thats what we are doing here. Yards per route run simply takes the total receiving yards a player accumulated in a given year and divides that by how many routes on passing plays he actually ran. What are advanced WR stats? But he also led the league with 254 routes run during this time, a per-game increase of 56% compared to his first ten games. Regular-season passes of between 5 and 15 air yards, minimum of 40 targets. This approach not only accounts for dedicated double teams, but for coverage methods such as bracketing. Three receivers who met the 75-target minimum were targeted at least 10 times on corner routes: Robinson, Keenan Allen and Robby Anderson, who each saw 12 targets on such routes. He became just the second player in NFL history with an 80% or better catch rate on 100+ targets. Look, there he is again! In his six games before that, though, Aiyuk was one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, generating 2.44 yards per route run and an 86.3 receiving grade. 38) Yards Per Route Run. With my hypothesis lined up, it was time to dig into the data. All four are a per-play rate metric, rather than a counting or cumulative stat. How do we know which is which? Yards per route run is the crown jewel of PFF's advanced stats for wide receivers. With an annual subscription. All of Denver, Miami, and Minnesota will have a new quarterback under center, which muddies things here, as does Oakland having a new offensive play-caller (Jon Gruden). When talking about sticky statistics, we are talking about numbers that we can point to with a level of certainty of carrying over year to year. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. 2023 Superflex Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings (Fantasy Football), 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings (Fantasy Football), Fantasy Football Rankings: Dynasty Trade Value Chart (May 2023 Update), Dynasty Rookie Draft Primer: Quarterbacks (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Sleepers: UDFAs (2023 Fantasy Football), Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft: Superflex, 4 Rounds (2023 Fantasy Football), Best Ball Strategy & Advice: Late-Round Quarterback (2023 Fantasy Football), Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com For the first time, these metrics provided a method to isolate and assess individual player performance in a consistent and objective way. But from game 11 to the end of the season, his efficiency numbers began to decline. Essentially, based on routes run, Hopkins is almost playing an extra full quarter per game when compared to Jones. We've discussed Thomas' ability until we're nearly blue in the face -- although cardio while masked seems to have improved this writer's lung capacity -- but we're tasked with justifying one final appearance atop a list of excellent route runners. Our reasoning for presenting offensive logos. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. Atlanta and the Rams ranked 11th- and seventh-lowest, respectively, in passing plays per game, which helped raise the rankings of their receivers here despite total targets not being especially high. Only wideout routes are included (i.e., players aligned wide, in the slot or tight): How often a pass catcher runs a route can give us insight into strategy and tendencies at the league-wide, team and individual levels of the game. The other two weird names on the list are cut from different clothes than Jones or Blackmon. Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. As soon as I saw A.J. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. Given the array of all 22 players' positions, directions and speeds, the model estimates the probability of a completion. Mike Band uses the Next Gen Stats Draft Model to spotlight six enticing individuals: three on offense and three on defense. How can a pass catcher win vs. press? AP MVP: Aaron Rodgers. I hope that this deep dive has put yards per route run on your radar when evaluating wide receivers and making educated decisions when identifying breakout wide receivers. receiving yards along with his target opportunities. The overall score correlates at 0.52. Among those top 25 receivers, no receiver was pressed at a higher rate at the line than Thomas (42%), and only one was pressed as much: Stefon Diggs. In this case, the adjustment is a simple adjusted plus-minus among the QB and his receivers. And at the bottom of the list we find names like Robby Anderson, a free agent this offseason who reportedly drew few offers from teams; an aging Larry Fitzgerald; and the unsigned Kelvin Benjamin. New Orleans Saints (52) After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. Of Thomas' league-leading 299 yards gained on slants, 162 came after the catch. Each of the three components are weighted in a way to best match real-world production, specifically a blend of predominantly yards per route with a bit of yards per target added. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. Of course, Blackmon missed the first four games of the season for violating the NFLs substance abuse policy, and then received an indefinite suspension for again being in violation of that policy after the Jaguars eighth game of the year. Brown streak across the field at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland in Week 1 last season, I knew he was going to be a problem for defenses in this league. No, we're not talking about the Minneapolis Miracle. In total, the wideout model was trained on over 100,000 routes, while the backfield model was trained on over 15,000 routes. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? Stat. With the free agency frenzy right around the corner, the Next Gen Stats analytics team identifies the three biggest needs for each AFC team. Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. Copyright 2010- FantasyPros.com 1 year ago by Antonio Losada. This chart helps hammer that point home. AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Ja'Marr Chase, AP Defensive Rookie of the Year: Micah Parsons, AP Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp, AP Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Rushing Leader: Jonathan Taylor, 1811 Yds, Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. The table below combines our more descriptive NGS receiving metrics with the results of our Route Recognition model. Then, in week 15, Cruz was injured in the third quarter against Seattle, and did not play again in 2014. At 6-feet, 226 pounds, Brown wins with size, speed and power. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks from Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. With the 2023 NFL Draft right around the corner, who are the can't-miss prospects in this talent crop? With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! Two tight ends Evan Engram of the New York Giants and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles top the list of receiver seasons with the highest separation over expected on short throws (5 air yards or less).5 Ertzs targets especially were high value. If a completion occurs, the receiver is credited with the marginal difference. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. In other words, YPRR already incorporates Yards per Target, but it adjusts that statistic for Targets Per Route Run. If he does not catch the pass, he is debited at minus-0.75. You don't currently have any notifications. The elements of savvy route running footwork, . The 6-foot-3, 211-pound wide receiver ended up with the lowest single-season PFF grade and yards per route run average of his eight-year NFL career in 2021. AVG . Regular-season passes of 5 air yards or shorter, minimum of 40 targets. These statistics provide a detailed view of how a WR accumulates If you are looking for the raw data behind this article, do not hesitate to reach out. Some receivers attract more attention from defenses than others, which allows other pass-catchers to get less attention. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. What about Yards per Target? Which game is featured at the top of NGS's unlikeliest victory rankings? For qualifying wide receivers, the overall score correlates with yards per route 00 which I believe is the best conventional stat to measure receiver production -- at 0.76. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. The Real Reason Presidential Candidates Form Exploratory Committees, Aug. 10, 2020, Were there any indicators that could have pointed to such a breakout? That means our models do have some sense of timing. Previous Season Next Season. It wasn't his frame but his footwork -- a fake outside, an adjustment upfield and a sharp cut at the top of the route -- that created the space necessary for a 51-yard catch-and-run on that play. Since depth of target is so important in determining separation, we grouped plays into buckets depending on whether a pass attempt was short, intermediate or deep and created an SOE leaderboard for each. Heres the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41). I did include sacks when calculating routes per team pass attempt, so that seems to be the only explanation. Perhaps even Simpsons paradox caveats. Best and worst receiver seasons on short passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. CROE is catch rate over expectation, which measures performance relative to completion probabilities. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. Of note, this is one of Patrick Mahomes' superpowers. John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. To put that in perspective, he is currently the only player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to average over 3.3 yards per route in a season (min. Our new Receiver Tracking Metrics (RTMs) use player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats to analyze every route run -- including those that are untargeted -- and assess receiver performance in three distinct phases: getting open, contesting and making the catch, and generating yards after the catch (YAC). NFL. Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. As a general rule, however, separation and value are decoupled on short passes. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. We're back to the short routes, which means we're again seeing Thomas at the top of the list. But Thomass numbers are still eye-popping, and his peers in the NFL recently ranked him first among all wide receivers (and fifth overall) in the NFL 100. Finally, I thought it would be fun to use the regression formula above to predict the wide receivers with the top YPRR averages in 2014. Gabriel Davis is a wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. While thats not a great stat line, it is a pretty good stat line for a player who was still only getting about 20 snaps per game. The final model does a decent job of predicting separation at the catch point on a given play.4 We used its predictions as a baseline for performance and compared each receivers actual separation on a given play to what the model expected an average players separation would have been, given similar circumstances. While its unlikely well see Beasley see significant playing time in 2014, Im a little more interested in watching him now than I was before this post. Last year, Still averaged 1.29 YPRR, Johnson 1.56. We can break down statistics as simple as receiving yards all the way to air yards and even more in-depth measurables such as BMI, which seems to be a hot topic this offseason. While sixteen of the wide receivers saw at least 80% of their teams passing snaps [6]Note: A couple of wide receivers have more pass routes than their teams had pass plays. In fact, on an EPA-per-play basis, throwing short to Landry has a worse point expectation than running the ball. With the help of player-tracking technology, the Next Gen Stats Analytics team set out to answer that exact question, decoding one of the key elements of an offensive play call by using player-tracking data to measure which routes pass catchers are running on any given pass play. Note that while NFL playbooks have hundreds of variations of routes, we've narrowed it down to these high-level categories, including 10 routes for those in typical wideout alignments and five for those aligned in the backfield: Wideout Routes (10): Screen, flat, slant, crossing, out, in, hitch, corner, post, go Backfield Routes (5): Screen, flat, angle, out, wheel. He then has to catch the ball to gain additional yards. Brown's two touchdowns on in routes also tied for the most in the NFL, and while his catch rate above expectation wasn't the best (+12.8%, ranking 11th among receivers who were targeted at least five times on in routes), his league-leading yards per reception on such routes (27.4) cements his status as the top player in this category. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. He got 34 receptions, 525 yards, and only one touchdown. Find out more. Deep targets (at least 15 air yards) are the most valuable in football on a per-play basis, but theyre also the throws with the tightest windows. Well, the word useful will mean different things to different people. Michael Thomas (3). This approach is able to estimate each individual's contribution to overall effectiveness, accounting for the presence or absence of other players around them. He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. Some plays and situations lend themselves to a lot or a little YAC, so YAC Score doesn't measure mere yards but rather the yards the receiver was able to generate beyond the expected amount. The top five and bottom five most versatile route runners from the 2019 season among 72 wide receivers with at least 300 routes: This only scratches the surface of the analysis possible with our route recognition. And targets to him are among the most valuable plays in football across all depths. Over the past decade, among all players with at least 250 snaps in a single season, raw targets had a 0.95 correlation to PPR fantasy points for wide receivers and that number sat at 0.96 for tight ends. The WOPR and YPRR look a bit different than other sources. Jones never hit a 90-percent snap share last year and reached 80 percent of his teams snaps in only seven of 16 games. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. RTMs account for who's throwing the pass in two ways: We adjust the Catch Score and the part of the Open Score that assesses openness at pass arrival based on the quarterback. One of the most widely recognized PFF signature stats, yards per route run takes into account the amount of snaps a receiver runs a route as an eligible receiver against the amount of receiving yards he gains for a . Although Sanders is likely still the WR2 on his team (behind Thomas in the pecking order), he shouldnt be treated as such for fantasy. This creates chances for catch-and-run opportunities. The resulting lists have reasonably strong face validity players at the top of the leaderboards tend to be widely regarded as good route runners suggesting SOE could be useful as a descriptive metric. Who were the best-performing wide receivers by route type? Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 Season + > 250 routes run during rookie year w/ at least 20 targets, Number of WRs w/ at least one WR1 season w/ at least 20 targets during rookie year (no minimum route run threshold). Subscribe:iTunes|Google Play|Spotify|Stitcher|SoundCloud|TuneIn|RSS. Which view is correct? Then we could compare the typical, expected openness for an average receiver to the actual openness assessed by a model looking at tracking data. NOTE: The two players ranked below who changed teams this offseason -- Bills WR Stefon Diggs and Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins -- are listed with the teams they played for last season, since these rankings are based on their performance in 2019. Who has the edge? Next Gen Stats maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on seven crucial Super Bowl LVII matchups. Explore sample . 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? Steelers' first draft under Omar Khan was 'aggressive' and achieved high marks, After hoopla of going No. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? To avoid noise in the data from broken plays (during which pass catchers often stop running their assigned routes) and player movement after the catch (which would not tell us much about the efficacy of any given route), all routes were capped at either the moment the ball was passed forward or at a given time (4.6 seconds after the snap for wideout routes and 4 seconds after the snap for backfield routes) -- whichever came first. A few moments ago, we used Year N YPRR to predict Year N+1 YPRR. Can Carolina risk letting other teams chase after him? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. It helps paint a more complete picture of each receiver's skill set and . 1, even though, statistically, hes the most efficient wide receiver in the league on a per-route basis. Play-action passes create more separation than non-play-action passes at nearly every depth of target on average, so we need to contextualize players who are targeted more often on play-action as well. When you think about it, it makes no sense -- the better a receiver is, the higher the benchmark he sets for himself in the metric.